They certainly aren’t outliers Angus. Walking through the Hollyford as a Western Australian, I could not help but see a fuel load for the ages, just sitting there waiting for climate change to prep it for ignition. Is it a possibility? Maybe not today, but what about tomorrow?
Excellent analysis and comment. In NZ we do not do enough of this sort of analysis, or take the messages seriously: this is true in so many areas, from fires to health. In large part this is because most managers have an aversion to statistics: they don’t understand them, so they don’t want to display their ignorance, and just “don’t want to know”. It reminds me of my experience decades ago of tutoring first year students in statistics, a course which most of them (e.g., medical students, commerce students, etc) were forced to do, but simply hated, and struggled to understand. They would muddle through, then breathe a sigh of relief at the end of the year that it was over. Some of these people will be the ones avoiding thinking about these issues today.
They certainly aren’t outliers Angus. Walking through the Hollyford as a Western Australian, I could not help but see a fuel load for the ages, just sitting there waiting for climate change to prep it for ignition. Is it a possibility? Maybe not today, but what about tomorrow?
I bet!
Excellent analysis and comment. In NZ we do not do enough of this sort of analysis, or take the messages seriously: this is true in so many areas, from fires to health. In large part this is because most managers have an aversion to statistics: they don’t understand them, so they don’t want to display their ignorance, and just “don’t want to know”. It reminds me of my experience decades ago of tutoring first year students in statistics, a course which most of them (e.g., medical students, commerce students, etc) were forced to do, but simply hated, and struggled to understand. They would muddle through, then breathe a sigh of relief at the end of the year that it was over. Some of these people will be the ones avoiding thinking about these issues today.
As someone who was in first year of commerce and hated my stats course, I really wish I took the time to listen!